China’s oil demand will peak by 2030 thanks to the use of petrochemicals – CNPC Research

Oil and gas tanks are seen at an oil warehouse at a port in Zhuhai, China October 22, 2018. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo

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BEIJING, Dec 27 (Reuters) – China’s oil consumption is expected to continue growing for a decade on the back of strong chemical demand, peaking at around 780 million tonnes a year by 2030, an institute said. affiliated with China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC). on Sunday.

Last year, the research group, called CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute (ETRI), said China’s oil demand would peak at 730 million tonnes a year by around 2025.

In its latest report, ETRI said consumption of diesel fuel, gasoline and kerosene is expected to peak around 2025 at around 390 million tonnes per year. Strong petrochemical demand will support rising consumption until 2030.

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Global oil demand will fall after 2030 as transport consumption declines under vehicle electrification, while demand for chemicals will remain flat over the period, ETRI said.

ETRI also revised China’s peak total primary energy consumption to 6.01 billion tonnes per year of standard coal around 2030, from 5.6 billion tonnes per year around 2035 previously.

“China’s coal consumption would plateau at around 3.6-4 billion tons in 2021-2030,” ETRI said, adding that the use of dirty fossil fuels would steadily decline in 2031-2050 as that coal-fired power plants would become an emergency source of energy.

It follows government plans to cut coal consumption in China, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, in an “orderly” way as part of its push to peak carbon emissions. . Read more

China’s top leaders said at an agenda-setting meeting this month that “the phasing out of traditional energy sources should be based on establishing new sources of energy that are safe and reliable”. Read more

ETRI also projects that the consumption of natural gas, a key transition fuel during the energy transition and the reduction of carbon emissions, will peak by 2040 at around 650 billion cubic meters per year, driven by the consumption of the industry and electricity producers.

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Reporting by Muyu Xu and Tony Munroe; Editing by Christian Schmollinger

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Steve R. Hansen