Global oil demand estimated at 100.6 million barrels per day in 2022: Opec

Global oil demand was estimated at 100.6 million barrels per day in 2022, or about 0.5 million barrels per day above 2019 levels, Opec said in its “Market Report. oil “from November.

For this year, OPEC estimated world oil demand at 96.4 million bpd.
The supply of non-OPEC liquids is expected to grow 0.7 million bpd in 2021, unchanged from last month’s estimate, to an average of 63.6 million bpd. This despite a marginal upward revision of 0.02 million barrels per day from the United States, Canada and Mexico, which was offset by a similar downward adjustment in non-OECD countries.
The main drivers of supply growth in 2021 remain Canada, Russia, China, Norway, Brazil and Guyana. The forecast for growth in the supply of non-OPEC liquids in 2022 is also unchanged at 3 million bpd for an average of 66.7 million bpd.
Russia and the United States are expected to be the main drivers of growth next year, contributing increases of 1 million bpd and 0.9 million bpd respectively, followed by Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Norway, Guyana and other DoC countries.
OPEC’s NGLs are expected to increase by 0.1 million b / d in 2021 and 2022 to reach 5.2 and 5.3 million b / d respectively on average.
In October, OPEC’s crude oil production rose 0.22 million bpd month-on-month (mom), to average 27.45 million bpd, according to available secondary sources.
Crude oil spot prices jumped more than 12% in October, the report said, on the back of soaring energy prices in Europe and Asia.
Strong oil market fundamentals, compounded by expectations of higher oil demand during the winter “gas-to-oil switching” months, supported spot and futures prices.
The OPEC (ORB) benchmark basket rose $ 8.23 ​​or 11.1%, mom, in October to an average of $ 82.11 / bbl.
Year-to-date (YTD), ORB has averaged $ 68.33 / bbl, for a gain of $ 27.77, or 68.4%, over the same period l last year. In the futures market, the first-month ICE Brent contract rose $ 8.87 or 11.8% mom to average $ 83.75 / bbl in October, while NYMEX WTI rose 9 , $ 68 or 13.5%, mom, to reach $ 81.22 / bbl on average. As a result, Opec noted that the Brent / WTI spread narrowed 81 to $ 2.53 / bbl in October. The market structure of the three main oil references – Brent, WTI and Dubai – has strengthened, sinking further into the offset due to the further decline in OECD commercial oil stocks in September and the prospect of stronger short-term market fundamentals.
“Hedge funds and other fund managers boosted the bullish positions linked to NYMEX WTI in October as data showed continued declines in inventory at the Cushing, Oklahoma mall. However, speculators have cut the bullish positions linked to ICE Brent, ”Opec said.

Steve R. Hansen